Flanders postscript

Boonen and Cancellara go toe to toe (Credit: ef2204 - Creative Commons Licence)

Sunday’s Tour of Flanders probably couldn’t have delivered more on expectations, given that it came down to a showdown between pre-race favourites Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen. Cancellera made his first move on the Molenberg, launching an attack that only Boonen could follow. Once the pair crested the hill alone you knew that they would stay away, with Cancellara doing the lion’s share of work in opening out a sizeable gap.

The real test for Cancellara was whether he could shake Boonen off before it came down to a sprint finish and he accomplished this with some style on the Muur. Staying seated all the while, he almost imperceptably put the power down, leaving Boonen wresling with his bike in a vain bid to get back on the Swiss rider’s wheel. By the time Boonen reached the top of the Muur, Cancellara was out of sight and heading for glory. Boonen was left with the lonely run-in of riding hard to ensure his second place.

The other riders I mentioned last week enjoyed mixed fortunes. Gilbert managed to secure the third spot on the podium. Had he been able to go with Cancellara and Boonen on the Molenberg, it might have been a different race, but Gilbert seemed to be too far back in the bunch to make the jump. Gilbert is a lighter rider than Boonen and might have coped better with Cancellara’s attack on the Muur.

One of the most impressive performances on the day came from Brtain’s David Millar. Coming off victory in the Three Days of De Panne, he launched a brave solo bid to reel in the two leaders. If anyone other than Cancellara had been driving the pace, Millar might have succeeded.

Matti Breschel was probably the most unlucky rider on the day. While Cancellara managed a fast change of bikes when he suffered a mechanical, Breschel was left waving his arms in frustration when he tried to do the same thing as a mechanic unsuccessfully tried to remove a spare bike from the roof rack before opting for another.

Devolder, Hoste and Ballan all lived up to pre-race expectations that they might not have the form to contest the win, but did manage to finish in the first chasing bunch, which indicates they might go well in next weekend’s Paris – Roubaix. Juan Antonio Flecha also finished in this bunch but had a very quietrace and I think he may be better suited to next weekend’s assignment.

I’ll try write up a preview of Paris – Roubaix later on in the week. In the mean time, here’s the action on the Muur from Sunday:

Tour of Flanders preview

The Tour of Flanders, which takes place on Sunday, is one of the biggest dates on the cycling calendar and the very epitome of Belgian racing. Narrow country lanes, hysterical (and often drunken) Belgian fans, poor weather, plenty of cobbled roads and a long series of short, leg breaking climbs mark it out as one of those races that tends to be won by the real hard men of the sport. This year’s race is shaping up to be a good one, with plenty of contenders vying for the title. Here’s a few to watch out for:

1. Tom Boonen:

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Just under a year ago Boonen looked like he was in serious dangerous of going off the rails. After winning Paris – Roubaix for the second year in a row, the big Belgian tested positive for the third time for cocaine in an out of competition test. Only a court battle secured his place in the Tour de France but he looked a shadow of his former self during the race and dropped out before the finish. Despite winning the Belgian National Championships and placing second on Paris – Tours, he seemed like a rider whose mind was elsewhere.

Over the winter Boonen appears to have put his troubles behind him and has been riding like a man possessed this spring, claiming a stage win in the Tirreno Adriatico and second at Milan – San Remo. Yet it is not his results that have impressed but more so the way he has been riding. On several occasions in the recent Belgian semi-classics, Boonen has torn the field apart on the climbs, blasting away up the gutter and leaving his pursuers scrambling for his wheel. It is surprising perhaps that he hasn’t yet won in Belgium this year, but Sunday is the first one that really counts.

The closest he came to winning was at the E3 Prijs last Saturday when he, Fabian Cancellara and Juan Antonio Flecha formed the winning break. Boonen would have been confident of taking victory if it came down to a sprint, but when Cancellara attacked with about a kilometre to go, Boonen failed to make it onto his wheel in time, seemingly taken by surprise by a traffic island on a left hand turn and letting the gap stay open too long. He won’t make the same mistake again on Sunday. What was more worrying was the fact that Boonen appeared to be grimacing with what appeared to be back pain during the final kilometres of Saturday’s race. Was he sandbagging or does he really have problems? We’ll find out on Sunday.

2. Fabian Cancellara:

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There is little to chose from between Boonen and the Swiss champion at the moment. Cancellara has come into a rich vein of form over the past few weeks and seems certain to mount a serious challenge on Sunday.

A few years ago, you probably wouldn’t have bracketed Cancellara in the top contenders. He was (and still is) a peerless time trial rider with a big enough motor to win races like Paris – Roubaix, which he duly did in 2006. Cancellara could have built his career around this but has instead announced that he gets bored winning the same races and has mentioned the ambition of trying to win all five monument classics. It’s a big ask, but he notched up his second monument in 2008 at Milan – San Remo when he accomplished the rare feat of mounting a solo attack in the closing kilometres and keeping the fast men at bay.

Flanders is next on his list seemingly, but last year’s effort was stymied by missing much of the early part of the season due to injury and an ill-timed mechanical in the race itself, in which he broke his chain on the Koppenberg and ended up carrying his bike up the legendary climb.

Cancellara has found his form again this year and took an excellent win at the E3 Prijs on Saturday, as mentioned above. His main weakness is probably that he isn’t as strong a sprinter as some of his rivals, as illustrated in the 2008 Paris – Roubaix when he arrived in the stadium in the company of Boonen and Ballan and was easily bested by Boonen in the sprint. This means that Cancellara’s best bet for victory is the solo attack, but if someone like Boonen can hang onto his wheel he may be in trouble.

3. Filippo Pozzato

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About a year ago I questioned whether Pozzato had the temperament to start winning really big races. Since then, he’s gone a long way towards proving me wrong. A surprise winner of Milan – San Remo in 2006, during the following few years Pozzato looked like he was going to make more of a career out of being a fashion icon than a cyclist. However, last spring he turned a corner and was a constant danger man throughout the spring. He bested Boonen to take the E3 Prijs, came second in Paris – Roubaix, won a stage in the 3 Days of De Panne and was fifth in the Tour of Flanders. While the big wins are still eluding him, it seems like it is only a matter of time before he nets one.

He started this season where he left off last year and has looked incredibly strong in most of his outings in Belgium to date. However, unlike Boonen and Cancellara, Pozzato seems to have a weaker team and often seems to be alone at the business end of a race. Nevertheless, he looks like the complete package, a strong rider who is capable of breaking the bunch up on the bergs, he can also unleash a decent sprint. You get the feeling that all he needs now is a bit of luck, but that seems in short supply this week after he pulled out of the Three Days of De Panne with flu.

4. Philippe Gilbert

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The Belgian confirmed himself as one of the sport’s stars last year with a vintage autumn that saw him win Paris – Tours and the Giro di Lombardia on successive weekends. Gilbert was also in the hunt at the Tour of Flanders, where he got third and secured fourth in both Amstel Gold and Liege – Bastogne – Liege. As leader of the Lotto team, no one will feel the weight of Belgian expectations more than him, aside perhaps from Tom Boonen and Stijn Devolder.

Nevertheless, winning Flanders may prove a tough task for the Belgian. Gilbert still appears like the kind of rider who is better suited to the Ardennes races and Lombardy, where the slightly longer climbs and his lighter frame allow him to build up a decent gap when he attacks. His display in Gent – Wevelgem on Sunday was also a cause for concern. He and team mate Jurgen Roelandts made it into the winning break, yet failed to use their numerical advantage to much effect. While Gilbert came home third, you got the feeling that they were indecisive and could have secured a bigger result if they had both taken turns attacking with conviction.

Having said all of this, Gilbert is no stranger to winning on cobbles, coming third last year and winning Het Nieuwsblad twice. His stock in trade is the solo break and fellow contenders would be foolish to give him a long leash.

5. Juan Antonio Flecha

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Flecha has been a perpetual contender in the big Belgian races over the past few years but seemed almost fated never to make the podium. That all changed in the season opener this year when he clinched victory in the Het Nieuwsblad by using a cobbled section 20 kilometres from the finish to motor away from his rivals.

Since then, the Argentinean born Spaniard has been in great form, as evidenced by his third place finish at the E3 Prijs last week. With his young team mate Edvald Boasson Hagen ruled out because of injury, a strong Sky team is likely to built around Flecha. However, at heart Flecha appears to favour a flatter parcours and some of his best performances have been in Paris – Roubaix, where he can be devastating on the rough roads. The relentless series of bergs that punctuate the finale of the Tour of Flanders may not be ideal for him and more explosive riders could leave him trailing.

6. Matti Breschel

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The young Dane (who incidentally was a model before he turned pro) has really come of age over the past year and while he may play second fiddle to his team mate Cancellara on Sunday, is still a genuine threat. Breschel took an impressive victory in the Dwars door Vlaanderen this year, when he attacked on the Tiegemberg over 20km from the finish and soloed to victory. Breschel was also arguably the strongest man in the race at Gent – Wevelgem on Sunday, but was held back by an inopportune puncture while riding with the leading group as the race reached its finale.

Cancellara will undoubtedly be Saxo Bank’s main man on Sunday, but Breschel’s strength means the team can play the one-two punch. If Breschel attacks, Cancellara’s rivals will have to chase and chase hard.

7. Stijn Devolder

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Only on Quick Step could you win the Tour of Flanders two years running and then get bawled out by your team manager in the press. That’s exactly what happened to Stijn Devolder this week, when Patrick Lefevere told a Belgian magazine that he was unhappy with Devolder, having not seen him near the front of a race all year. Lefevere has reason to be worried. Previous years saw Devolder light up the early season races. This year he has been largely anonymous although did put in some hard riding this week at the Three Days of De Panne

Devolder went into the last two Tours of Flanders as Quick Step’s Plan B, essentially there to soften up the opposition for Boonen. However, on each occasion he was strong enough to make his attacks stick and ride to victory while the other favourites watched Boonen.

Aside from questionable form and a resurgent Boonen, this year’s parcours may not favour Devolder. On the occasion of both his victories, he used the Eikenmolen as the launchpad for his attack, but he won’t be able to do so this year as the climb has been taken out.

If Devolder does manage to pull some form out of the bag on Sunday he will be a formidable threat. He is built for these roads and is capable of attacking the bergs with a raw savagery that would almost leave you speechless.

8. Alessandro Ballan

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There was a time when Alessandro Ballan would have been near the top of any favourite’s list for this race. However, the Italian has had a miserable time since winning the World Championships in 2008 and most of last season was a write-off due to illness. This year he has switched to the BMC team, no doubt in search of a fresh start, but he has yet to find the form that brought him victory in 2007 and top five finishes in 2006 and 2008. He (and indeed much of his team) have been very quite so far this year and while Ballan could be seen doing a fair bit of work on the front on the opening stage of the Three Days of De Panne, he wasn’t exactly setting the world alight either. Still only 30 years old, Ballan has plenty of good years left in him yet, but you get the feeling he is still on the comeback trail.

9. Leif Hoste

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Hoste is probably the one rider who could rival Jan Ullrich as being this generations Raymond Poulidor. Three times he’s finished second in Flanders but he’s never managed to reach the top step of the podium. Hoste is one of those riders who seems to base his entire season around the eight days during which the Tour of Flanders and Paris – Roubaix are held. Still only 32, his quest is beginning to appear increasingly Quixotic and Hoste is becoming as well known for his proclivity for arguing with other riders on the road as he is for his results. Philippe Gilbert is now his team’s undisputed leader for the classics and Hoste himself was very quite in the run-up to this weekend. The sole exception was his presence the break on the first stage of the Three Days of De Panne. However, for reasons best known to himself, he decided to sit up and wait for the bunch.

10. Nick Nuyens

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Another one of those riders that has been knocking on the door now for a while, Nuyens has previously won the Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne – Brussels – Kuurne, but has yet to get the big wins many had predicted for him. Although he’s shown a lot this spring and has been riding strongly, Nuyens’ season to date sometimes appears like one big blooper reel. At the E3 Prijs on Saturday he crashed not once, not twice but three times. At the Het Nieuwsblad it was punctures. Three of them. With the sole exception of Oscar Freire, who won’t be riding on Sunday, his Rabobank team never seems to be able to produce the goods in the classics and, one the evidence of their season to date, don’t seem likely to change that this year.